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Checking in on our bold Celtics preseason predictions at the All-Star break, we can see th...

Sat, 15 Feb 2025 09:27 AM

Checking in on our bold Celtics preseason predictions at the All-Star break, we can see that some have proven to be accurate while others have fallen short. With the team currently sitting in the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference, it's clear that there is still work to be done in order to live up to our lofty expectations. Let's revisit our predictions and see where we stand as the second half of the season gets underway.

Two thirds of the 2024-25 NBA season is in the rearview mirror as the league speeds into the mid-February All-Star break.

The brief regular-season respite offers us a chance to take inventory, including a check in on how our trusty crystal ball is faring.

So let’s do a status check on all seven of our bold preseason predictions and then we’ll add a handful more prognostications to the mix.

1. Jaylen Brown lands on All-NBA, All-Defense teams

Brown’s counting stats are very similar to last season when he was an All-NBA snub. Hurting his cause: His offensive efficiency is down with his 32.4 3-point percentage being a career low, and 46.1 percent shooting overall would be his worst field goal percentage since his rookie season. That’s balanced out a bit by a notable pop in playmaking with Brown handing out a career-best 4.8 assists per game. If Brown can find last year’s shooting touch over the final 27 games, it might aid his case for All-NBA. The 65-game threshold is also going to squeeze out a handful of familiar All-NBA names.

The case for Brown on All-Defense hinges on the level of scorer he’s typically defending this season. Brown has routinely requested to guard the opposing team’s top threat. That’s reflected in a 46.7 expected field goal percentage, which is among the top 10 highest numbers in the league among high-volume perimeter defenders. Brown is holding those opponents to 45.8 percent shooting, or 0.9 percent below expected, which is a good-not-great number.

What makes it more impressive is that Brown’s top defensive matchup list reads like an All-Star roster. Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Zach LaVine, Tyrese Maxey, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell. Brown has not shied away from the challenge of defending elite offensive players. The question is whether voters will give him the nod over other Boston All-Defense stalwarts like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White.

Bottom line: Brown needs a loud second half to strengthen his case for both slots.

Jaylen Brown consistently guards the opponent’s top wing players.2. Celtics raise the NBA Cup in Las Vegas

That mid-November loss to the Trae Young-less Hawks was 1) One of the few early season missteps for an otherwise laser-focused Boston and 2) A harbinger of Boston’s propensity to play down to competition, something that plagued the team throughout December and January. Poor Luke Kornet is never going to pay off his mortgage.

3. Celtics set an NBA record for most 3-pointers made in a season

The Celtics have already made 976 3-pointers through 55 games. At 17.7 3-pointers per game, Boston is on pace to make 1,451 triples and obliterate the previous record of 1,363 3-pointers by the 2022-23 Warriors. Go ahead and put a green check next to this prediction.

4. Payton Pritchard wins Sixth Man of the Year

Pritchard is back as the betting favorite to win Sixth Man. His biggest competition is now in Cleveland after the Hawks dealt De’Andre Hunter there at the deadline. The question is whether the Cavs will utilize Hunter off the bench or as a starter — he’s played each role once in the two games since the deal.

The Celtics have kept Pritchard cemented in a bench role while starter minutes might help pad Hunter’s stat line. Still, Pritchard’s 747 bench points are not only the best in the league, but 85 points ahead of next closest, Malik Beasley (and 105 points ahead of Hunter’s 642 bench points). It’s hard to see anyone else being in the mix beyond Pritchard and Hunter. Amen Thompson could have been in that conversation but has been a full-time starter since late December.

Payton Pritchard is having a career season.5. Joe Mazzulla wins Coach of the Year

The thought process here was that, if the Celtics were as dominant this year as they were last season, then voters would have no choice but to reward Mazzulla. At the All-Star break, he’s not even listed on Coach of the Year odds, and you can basically ship that trophy to Kenny Atkinson if Cleveland stays atop the East.

6. Celtics don’t lose more than two games in a row … for second straight season

For all the consternation about Boston’s roller coaster ways in December and January, it’s kind of wild that they 1) Still have not lost more than two games in a row the past two seasons and 2) Have only lost two games in a row once this season. That’s just a remarkable ability to bounce back after losses.

7. Celtics win 62 games and repeat as NBA champions

Can we amend to 58 wins and repeat as NBA champions? Take away some of those head-slapping losses to inferior teams and the Celtics should really be on that 62-win pace.

And while we’ve got our crystal ball out, let’s add a handful more bold prognostications: 

1. Luke Kornet finishes in the top 5 in net rating

Call him Positive K because Luke kicks in like a turbo booster each time he touches the court. If bench play is a headache, he’ll be your aspirin. Kornet’s plus-14.5 net rating this season is the best mark among Celtics regulars and he sits fourth in the NBA among those with 40-plus games and 15-plus minutes per night. Only OKC’s Gilgeous-Alexander (plus-18.4) and Isaiah Joe (plus-16.9) and Cleveland’s Evan Mobley (plus-14.6) are ahead of him. There are a handful of OKC players that Kornet will need to stiff arm to land near the top of the net rating leaders at season’s end.

Luke Kornet is giving the Celtics a nice boost off the bench.2. Drew Peterson gets final roster spot before end of season

The Celtics could always keep their final roster spot open for maximum financial benefit but, barring an injury that forces them to otherwise fill that 15th spot with a specific need, we wonder if Peterson gets the promotion from his 2-way deal after appearing in 14 games so far this season. It would be much like what the Celtics did a year ago in elevating Neemias Queta.

3. Jayson Tatum finishes 3rd in MVP voting and … 4. … is the NBA Finals MVP 

It’s still absurd that Tatum finished sixth in MVP voting last season given his role in how dominant the Celtics were last year. He’s now finished in the top six in voting in three of the last four seasons, but never higher than fourth in 2023. That changes this year. While he’s probably not muscling past SGA or Nikola Jokic, Tatum ought to be on the medal stand. And if we get the pre-All-Star version of Tatum in the 2025 playoffs, he’ll be taking home some hardware along Boston’s quest to repeat as champs.

5. Celtics defeat Magic, Knicks, Cavaliers to win East … 6. … then outlast the Thunder in the NBA Finals

It won’t be the 16-3 bulldozer that flattened all competition during last year’s playoff run, but the Celtics grind their way through a true gauntlet to repeat as NBA champs. We were tempted to stick with our preseason pick of Denver to represent the West, and we’re not completely sold that the Thunder will be ready for the moment, but watching them play it’s undeniable that they are easily the best team in a talent-filled West.

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